Russia says it will give a ‘harsh and painful’ response after Hungary expels 10 diplomats - Europe live

Introduction

In a dramatic escalation of diplomatic tensions, Russia has warned that it will deliver a “harsh and painful” response after Hungary expelled ten Russian diplomats earlier this week. The expulsions, described by Budapest as necessary to curb “unacceptable” activities, have provoked a sharp rebuke from Moscow, which accused the Hungarian government of succumbing to a “Russophobic lobby.” The episode comes at a time when the Kremlin is simultaneously projecting confidence in its military campaign in Ukraine, with senior officials insisting that victory is “very near.” The convergence of these diplomatic and military signals underscores the volatility of Europe’s security environment and raises questions about the next steps in a fraught relationship between Russia and a key EU member state.

What Happened

On Monday, the Hungarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the expulsion of ten Russian embassy staff members, citing activities that violated Hungarian law and threatened national security. While the ministry did not disclose the precise nature of the alleged misconduct, officials hinted at espionage, attempts to influence domestic politics, and the organization of “unacceptable” gatherings that contravened Hungary’s diplomatic protocols. The decision was taken after a confidential investigation by Hungary’s security services, which concluded that the diplomats’ actions were incompatible with the standards of diplomatic conduct.

Russia’s reaction was swift and severe. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told reporters that Moscow would not “stand idly by while a member of the European Union attacks our diplomatic corps.” She warned that the response would be “harsh and painful,” though she stopped short of specifying the exact measures that could be taken. The statement was echoed by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who, while condemning the expulsions, also used the opportunity to reiterate Russia’s confidence that its war in Ukraine is approaching a decisive victory.

Key Details

The ten diplomats expelled by Hungary included two consular officers, three cultural attachés, and five staff members attached to the Russian embassy’s political department. According to Hungarian officials, the cultural attachés were involved in organizing events that promoted Russian propaganda, while the political staff were allegedly gathering intelligence on Hungarian political parties and NGOs. The expulsions were carried out under the provisions of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which allows a host nation to declare any diplomatic staff persona non grata without providing a justification.

In response, Russia has hinted at a range of possible retaliatory actions. Zakharova suggested that Moscow could consider expelling an equivalent number of Hungarian diplomats from Moscow, impose targeted sanctions on Hungarian officials, or suspend certain bilateral agreements, particularly those related to energy cooperation. Additionally, Russian state media has begun broadcasting a series of editorials accusing Hungary of betraying its “strategic partner” status and aligning too closely with the “Russophobic” elements within the EU.

Background

Hungary’s relationship with Russia has long been a blend of pragmatic cooperation and ideological divergence. Since the early 2010s, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government has pursued a policy of “energy independence” that has relied heavily on Russian gas and nuclear technology, most notably the Paks II nuclear plant project. At the same time, Budapest has been a vocal critic of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its ongoing war in Ukraine, aligning itself with EU sanctions and supporting Kyiv’s diplomatic initiatives.

The expulsion of diplomats marks a sharp departure from the relatively low‑key diplomatic engagements that characterized the previous decade. While Hungary has often resisted EU pressure to adopt a hard line against Moscow, the recent move reflects growing domestic and international pressure to demonstrate a firmer stance against Russian interference, especially as the war in Ukraine drags on and public opinion in Budapest turns increasingly hostile toward Moscow.

Why It Matters

First, the incident highlights the fragility of diplomatic norms in an era where espionage and influence operations have become routine tools of statecraft. By labeling the diplomats’ conduct as “unacceptable,” Hungary is signaling that it will no longer tolerate covert Russian activities on its soil, a stance that could inspire other EU capitals to take similar actions. This could lead to a cascade of reciprocal expulsions, further eroding the already thin diplomatic channels that exist between Russia and the West.

Second, the episode has broader implications for European security and energy policy. Hungary is a key transit country for Russian gas pipelines that supply much of Central Europe. Any deterioration in bilateral relations could jeopardize existing energy contracts, prompting the EU to accelerate its diversification efforts. Moreover, a tit‑for‑tat diplomatic clash risks spilling over into economic realms, potentially affecting trade, investment, and the stability of regional markets.

What Happens Next

In the short term, the most likely Russian response will be a reciprocal expulsion of Hungarian diplomats from Moscow, a move that would be largely symbolic but would reinforce Moscow’s message of retaliation. Simultaneously, the Kremlin may leverage its influence over energy supplies to apply pressure on Hungary, perhaps by threatening to delay or renegotiate gas deliveries or by using state‑controlled enterprises to target Hungarian businesses operating in Russia.

Looking ahead, the diplomatic row could become a flashpoint in the broader EU‑Russia relationship. If Budapest proceeds with additional measures—such as restricting Russian media, tightening financial controls, or supporting EU sanctions on Russian officials—Moscow may consider more substantive counter‑measures, including targeted sanctions against Hungarian political figures or the suspension of joint projects. The situation will be closely monitored by NATO and the United States, both of which have expressed support for Hungary’s right to defend its sovereignty while warning against any escalation that could destabilize the region.

Conclusion

The expulsion of ten Russian diplomats by Hungary and Moscow’s promise of a “harsh and painful” retaliation mark a significant escalation in an already tense European security landscape. While the immediate fallout is likely to involve reciprocal diplomatic expulsions and heightened rhetoric, the longer‑term consequences could reverberate through energy markets, EU‑Russia negotiations, and the broader balance of power on the continent. As both sides navigate this delicate confrontation, the international community will be watching closely, hoping that diplomatic channels remain open enough to prevent a deeper crisis and to keep the focus on a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.